Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Bruce key to next step

Jay Bruce has matured since taking the baseball world by surprise with his amazing debut in 2008. Sure, Bruce was electrifying his first few games in the league. He finished that season hitting .254, a fair but unspectacular clip for a rookie.

Bruce has been more consistent over the last few years in his hitting. His average has stayed in the mid-.250's over the last 2 seasons, but he has seen his power numbers rise each year. Bruce's best hitting for average came in the year the Reds failed to make the playoffs. Bruce hit .281 with 25 homers in 2010.

2013 has looked to be a major stepping stone for the right fielder in his quest for achieving greatness. Bruce has once again flashed an MVP caliber right field defense, and he has kept his average relatively high up to this point. Bruce is hitting over .300 in June, and has an overall average of .278. He took a little while to get going in terms of power hitting, but he has turned it on lately with 13 homers, including 3 in his last 5 games.

Bruce is very important to the Reds as the fifth hitter in the lineup. If the Reds want to continue to earn victories, they are going to rely on the middle order hitters to drive in runs. Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Votto, and Brandon Phillips have consistently shown the ability to get on base. Choo and Votto each have an OBP of over .400, and Phillips excels with an 0-2 count in his at bats by working his way back to a hitter's count. Bruce is the X-factor. If he can drive in the hitters at the top of the order, it won't matter how much an inconsistent bullpen struggles. The Reds will be too far ahead in the game to fret.

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Position Breakdown: Running backs

The Bengals set their sights on improving the ball carrier position this offseason after a thin group represented the unit last season behind starter Benjarvus Green-Ellis. The Law Firm is back and will probably be the opening day starter in Chicago for the team. Green-Ellis averaged 3.9 yards per carry while rushing for over 1,000 yards. He was a steady back who even broke out for some long runs, but he lacked the explosion that teams fear from dynamic backs who can take the ball to the end zone on any given touch.

Bernard Scott was supposed to capture the backup position to Green-Ellis last year, but instead, he suffered a season ending injury against the Dolphins that required a long rehab period. Scott has never developed into the standout speed back that he showed flashes of being his rookie season after running a 4.44 forty yard dash. In Scott's most extensive action in 2011, he rushed for only 3.4 yards per carry and was stopped in the backfield on multiple occasions. The Bengals re-signed the former sixth round pick out of Abilene Christian to a one year deal for the veteran minimum. Scott will get some touches in camp and in the preseason, but I would be shocked if he makes the 53 man roster because of his durability issues and lack of a physical running style.

Gio Bernard was the first running back taken in this year's NFL Draft, and the Bengals are expecting a great deal from the second round pick. Bernard can do it all as a perfect fit in the West Coast system. Bernard is Hue Jackson's hand picked back, so expect him to take over the starting position with most of the carries at some point in the season. At the start, Bernard will be Green-Ellis' complement, which will take the pressure off of Green-Ellis to have to grind out 20-25 carries per game like in 2012. Bernard is a lock to make the team as the secondary option at the position, and will also make plenty of receptions and return punts and kicks.

The backup running backs last season were Cedric Peerman and third down runner, Brian Leonard. Leonard left the team as a free agent and signed with the Bucs. He was mainly used to catch the ball out of the backfield on third down passing attempts. Peerman is a solid NFL pro. He can do a little bit of everything, and was rock solid as Green-Ellis' backup ballcarrier last year. The Bengals don't seem to trust him running the ball even though his numbers are very good in a small sample size. Peerman will be buried on the depth chart this season once again after the team decided to try to upgrade the position. He averaged 7.2 yards per carry and rushed for 258 yards last year along with catching 9 passes. Peerman will be called upon as the fourth running back for insurance purposes this season. He is one of the Bengals' best special teams players, which will help him earn a spot on the roster.

The final running back to make the team will be whoever can show enough ability as a third down back and special teams player between Rex Burkhead and Boom Herron. Herron was the Bengals' sixth round pick in 2012 out of Ohio State, and cracked the active roster late in the year to find success on the special teams unit. He blocked 2 punts late in the year against Dallas and Philadelphia. Herron is not an NFL running back. He is probably a little too slow to churn out chunks of yardage and has never been a pass catcher in his college or professional career. If Herron makes the team, it will be because the Bengals think he has more blocked punts and special teams tackles in him.

Rex Burkhead is more of an intriguing prospect as a rookie sixth round draft pick. Burkhead had a remarkable career at Nebraska with over 3,000 yards and 30 touchdowns in four seasons. He was widely considered the top offensive threat at Nebraska and one of the best running backs in the country over the past 2 college football seasons. Burkhead rushed for 1,357 yards his junior year with 15 touchdowns, and also had 177 receiving yards. His numbers fell off his senior year because of an injury that hampered him throughout the season, but he played through the pain and still managed 6.9 yards per carry, the highest of his career. Burkhead is a perfect replacement for Brian Leonard if the Bengals want a more traditional third down back. Burkhead possesses better running ability than Leonard, and can certainly hold is own blocking and catching the ball. The test for the rookie will be how he adjusts to the NFL special teams game. If he can play well on special teams, Burkhead will earn a spot on the team. My money is on Burkhead to make it. He is a hard worker and consistently in the right place at the right time to make a play.

Monday, June 17, 2013

Hard Knocks returns to Cincinnati

Bengal Nation was shocked to find out the Bengals will once again be hosting Hard Knocks for training camp this July and August for the second time in 5 years. Cincinnati is the first NFL team to repeat on the show.

The Bengals have transformed as a team since those 2009 days in Georgetown, Kentucky. Only 13 players are left from 2009. Carson Palmer is long gone, and Chad Ochocinco has just been released from a jail cell. The star players of that Wild Card team are gone, replaced by the likes of Andy Dalton and AJ Green.

Dalton and Green seem to have pretty nondescript personalities from the outside eye. Those two, as with many of the team's best players heading into 2013, don't seek the limelight. However, fans will get to see if this observation holds true on the show. Last time around, we found out Palmer was ultra picky about his Gatorade. What is Dalton really like commanding a team? I think we will find out he is more fiery than people think, much like a Boomer Esiason. 

Green is nothing like Ochocinco, but Hard Knocks will give fans the chance to see what some of his hobbies are besides juggling. There may not be much there. Green seems to me like an ultra focused individual who wishes to perfect his craft, very much like Jerry Rice.

Another development on the show will be the change in the mannerisms of Marvin Lewis, who is now winless in 3 of the last 4 seasons in the playoffs. This will be Lewis' third appearance on the show. Will Lewis have a short temper and less patience for mistakes?

Some other story lines to watch starting the first week in August on the opening episode of Hard Knocks:

1. Linebackers-Rey Maualuga was viewed as a rising stud last time on the show as a rookie. He will now be considered a disappointing veteran at a crossroads in his career. How will he react to the pressure? Vontaze Burfict and James Harrison will also be fun to watch as tough, intimidating figures.

2. Zim, Gruden, and the assistants-Yes, we will see plenty of Defensive Coordinator Mike Zimmer screaming at his players again. The big question is Jay Gruden. Viewers will be able to witness whether Gruden is similar to his brother, Jon, and how he manages a rookie running back and tight end, along with the progressions of Dalton and Green. Hue Jackson will be featured plenty on the show. He is Marvin Lewis' right hand man, and the running backs coach. Jackson is still considered a potential head coach.

3. Has Mike Brown changed? The short answer is probably not. However, have these last couple seasons of coming short of playoff victories worn on the owner? Brown is finally attempting to build a consistent winner, and he could be more forceful on the 2013 show in order to push for a championship contender.

4. Pacman and Andre-The show will capture the legal issues of the third corner, focusing on whether Pacman Jones will see the field at the start of the regular season. Smith is a funny character. You never know what he truly thinks about things or how he is motivated to play well. Smith may show up to camp out of shape, which is always a buzz worthy topic in Cincinnati.

5. The rookies-A Hard Knocks specialty. Rookies are always hazed somewhat coming into the league. The first ever Hard Knocks of the Ravens featured a whole theatrical show on making fun of the first year players. Who are the big jesters on the Bengals who will prank the rookies as vets in the NFL? Tyler Eifert and Gio Bernard will have plenty of comic attention coming their way. Margus Hunt's coming to America from Estonia to play football could be taken advantage of in potential jokes. Also, first year offensive lineman Tanner Hawkinson looks like Will Farrell, which could be a funny development.

Sunday, June 16, 2013

Winning series is the name of the game

The Reds are a standout team at taking one game at a time. They don't stress over frustrating losses like recent extra innings defeats at the hands of the Cubs and Cardinals. Cincinnati is mature enough to realize that a single loss isn't going to hurt a baseball team in the long run. What really matters is winning more games than the other team in a series, no matter whether home or away.

The Reds do a great job at making sure they give the opposition their best shot in the first game of a series. That's the game that frames the remainder of the series. If a team wins the first game within a series, it can afford to lose the second game for a rubber match or the third for a chance at the sweep. In a 4 game series last week, the Reds won the first three games at Wrigley Field and lost the finale to only drop a single game on the road trip. 

Most fans get upset about the extra inning losses that this team suffers from time to time. In reality, the games the Reds have lost that way are the games this team doesn't feel much pressure to win. If you look at the majority of the series the Reds have played, the team has won a majority of the games, which is why the Reds have 42 wins right now. 

Cincinnati won't make fans' do a face palm in October. This team will do what it does best in a playoff series. Win the first game or two, drop one in the middle, and win the series.

Broxton's injury opens door for Simon

The Reds discovered that it wasn't just soreness that plagued setup man Jonathan Broxton. Broxton has a shoulder injury that will cost him time on the major league ball club. He will enter his first stint on the DL since the Reds traded for him from the Royals at the deadline last year.

Alfredo Simon has been Manager Dusty Baker's pitcher of choice to assume the role of the eighth inning. Simon was a valuable member of last year's NL Central Division champs. He was the primary long man as fellow long reliever Sam LeCure usually mopped up innings in pressure spots. Simon was used when the starting pitching wasn't at its best and there was a need for a relief pitcher to enter the game for more than a single inning.

Simon finished last season with an ERA under 3 after being a starter and reliever for much of his prior career with Baltimore. Simon has started the season almost as well as he finished last year. Simon has been efficient with his pitches, and his ERA is respectably in the 3's. Simon is a veteran of the league and knows that it takes mixing pitches to be successful at the major league level. He has a fastball that can reach 96 miles per hour, and throws a hard breaking ball as well. Simon is pitching the way the Reds wanted Broxton to pitch after signing him to a 2 year extension. 

If Simon continues to bridge the gap between starting pitching and Aroldis Chapman, the Reds bullpen could be locked down like it was in the second half of last year. Simon was originally just a cheap option to throw in a game when the Reds first acquired him. He has turned into a sought after commodity who can help the Reds maintain leads in the innings they have the most trouble.

Friday, June 14, 2013

The case for a 2 inning closer

The Reds have lost some crushing games in the late innings due to an inconsistent bullpen. In the last 5 days, Cincinnati's bullpen has blown two games with leads heading into the final couple of innings. The extra inning games have not been kind to Cincinnati either. If the Reds want to win the NL Central Division for back to back years, they have to figure out a way to nail down wins after their starters are through.

Aroldis Chapman has been the team's most dominant reliever by far this year. He has only blown a total of 2 saves in his 19 opportunities, and when his location is on with his slider, Chapman is one of the game's toughest pitchers to hit. Chapman was originally training to be a starter on his road to the majors, meaning he has the ability to throw multiple innings in a short stretch of time. The Reds should use their best reliever in the bullpen in the eight and ninth inning roles to help them nail down some games that the weaker relievers have shown a propensity to lose for the team.

Chapman has the lowest opposing batting average out of any pitcher on the team with over 10 innings pitched besides Johnny Cueto at .175. He has had a great season in terms of control with a low WHIP of 1.03. Chapman has really developed into the pitcher the Reds thought he would be when they signed him for the 2010 season. Jonathan Broxton and Sam LeCure have not been able to handle the late inning roles with much consistency. Their ERA's are higher than they should be, and the runs they have given up tend to do a lot of damage in the tight spots in games. Chapman's ERA is tied for lowest on the team at 2.17, and he has been able to handle pressure situations with his team holding a short lead.

If the Reds want to break out of disappointing losses, pitching Chapman in the eighth and ninth innings is the way to go. Throwing a lot of pitches has not been a problem for Chapman. He hasn't hurt his arm due to overuse in quite some time.
Most of the Reds' starters have shown the ability to pitch through the seventh inning this season, and if the Reds can find a way to hold the other team scoreless in the eighth and ninth, they will soon find themselves 20+ games above the .500 mark.

Position Breakdown: Offensive line

The Bengals shuffled through starting offensive linemen throughout last season. The tackles started every game, but the interior offensive line was in flux at times. Andre Smith and Andrew Whitworth are still the stars of the line, but if the offensive line stays together in 2013, it could make for a dominant group. Travelle Wharton was penciled in as the starter during training camp last year, but he had surgery and was lost for the season. Clint Boling ended up as the starting left guard for the Bengals. Kevin Zeitler was a pleasant surprise in his rookie year for the team. He started every game and was consistently a standout player both in run and pass blocking.

The center position was up for grabs last year after Kyle Cook was hurt in the preseason. Cook missed over half the year, but returned when the Bengals played Dallas and started for the rest of the year, including in the playoff loss. Trevor Robinson and Jeff Faine filled in during Cook's rehab process. Robinson played well after being undrafted out of Notre Dame, and Faine was later released from the team. This year's Bengals offensive line should be improved because of the depth and camaraderie of the returning unit.

Tackles: Andre Smith, Andrew Whitworth, Anthony Collins, Dennis Roland, Reid Fragel, Tanner Hawkinson. Smith and Whitworth are the clear cut starters. Even though Smith has yet to show up to team activities thus far, he should be all set for training camp. Collins is a quality backup who started for the team in 2009. If either starter went down with an injury, Collins could fill in and do a good job. Roland, Fragel, and Hawkinson are fighting for 2 spots. Hawkinson will probably make the team after being drafted in the 5th round out of Kansas. The Bengals are trying to play him at every position as a backup, and if he shows that kind of versatility, Hawkinson will be a very valuable commodity. I think Fragel will unseat Roland for third string tackle this year. Fragel is a project after converting to tackle from tight end at Ohio State, but he is very athletic and could be used in the unbalanced line formation in the red zone as a receiving target or a blocker. 

Guards: Clint Boling, Kevin Zeitler, Mike Pollak, Travelle Wharton, John Sullen. Boling and Zeitler will most likely start again for the Bengals, even with a healthy Wharton returning from injury. Wharton, much like Anthony Collins, will be a quality backup for the Bengals. Pollak was signed as a backup this year and has done a nice job during OTA's and minicamp. Sullen is the long shot to earn a roster spot. He is more than likely just a camp player. 

Centers: Kyle Cook, Trevor Robinson, TJ Johnson. Cook and Robinson are fighting for the starting spot. Cook is a veteran and has played consistently throughout his career with the Bengals, but the offense was very effective with Robinson in there last year. The odds are in Cook's favor to start, but Robinson is a worthy candidate to take over at that position. TJ Johnson was the Bengals' seventh round pick. He probably won't make the 53 man roster, but could be a valuable member of the practice squad. 

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Options for the bullpen at Louisville

The Reds have gone the majority of the season so far with an inconsistent bullpen. With the exceptions of Aroldis Chapman, Sam LeCure, and Jonathan Broxton, the team's options in the bullpen have not lived up to expectations. The middle relief pitchers are not getting the job done right now. Logan Ondrusek and JJ Hoover, who each had ERA's in the 3's last year, have posted ERA's in the 5's this season with opposing batting averages in the .240's. Hoover and Ondrusek each have had major control problems with their pitches, and Ondrusek was just demoted back to the minor leagues.

Curtis Parch and Manny Parra also are not ideal pitchers to have on the MLB ball club. Parch and Parra are not highly sought after players, and probably wouldn't be in the majors if not for injuries to established professionals. Luckily for the Reds, there are a few options they could turn to in Triple A Louisville. Greg Reynolds, Yohan Pino, Jose Diaz, and Mark Prior have each pitched well enough to get a call up to Cincinnati.

Prior might be the best option for the Reds if they want a short term option to bridge the gap for the trade market to open up and for players on the DL to return. He has big league experience as recent as last season with the Red Sox, and knows how to play for a team managed by Dusty Baker. Prior currently has a 4.66 ERA, but has only pitched in a total of 7 games. He is a fresh arm who could give the Reds a productive inning during games based on his baseball acumen from being in the league for so many years with the Cubs as a star in the early to mid 2000's.

Greg Reynolds has been lights out as a starter for Louisville this season. If the Reds want to experiment a switch to the bullpen from a minor league pitcher in the rotation, Reynolds could be the answer. Reynolds is 7-0 with a 2.51 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. The Reds have moved a starter into the bullpen with great success in the past with names such as Alfredo Simon and even Mike Leake. Reynolds has the ability to get hitters out consistently. 

Pino and Diaz each have bounced around the minors throughout their careers. They have soured to a fast start this season. Pino and Diaz each have ERA's below 2.5, but both have walked a lot of batters. The Reds are going to have to think about replacing Parch soon, and they have a number of players who haven't been able to pitch in the big leagues yet that deserve opportunities. 

Bengals d-line returns in tact

The Bengals defense finished in the top 10 last season in large part due to generating a total of 51 sacks. The majority came from 2 contributors in the starting lineup, Geno Atkins and Michael Johnson. Atkins is widely considered the best defensive tackle in the NFL. He had a total of 12.5 sacks and was virtually unblockable last year. The scary thing for opposing NFL teams is that Atkins hasn't even reached his prime as a player yet as a 25 year old player in his fourth season. If Atkins continues to improve and stay healthy, he could end up a Hall of Famer at the end of his career.

Atkins on the inside opened up rushing lanes on the outside of the defensive line with Michael Johnson's 11.5 sacks. Johnson is a physical specimen with his 6'7, 280 pound frame. He took a huge step in 2012 and earned the franchise tag this offseason. The Bengals are hoping Carlos Dunlap steps up and earns the starting gig opposite Johnson in his contract year. Dunlap is probably the team's most talented lineman since being drafted out of Florida in the second round in 2010. Dunlap has shown flashes of being dominant, especially in his rookie season. He finished last year with 6 sacks, but his main problem is staying healthy and productive on the field. Dunlap can't just be a third down specialist this season if he wants to cash in and receive a long term extension.

What makes the defensive line the Bengals' deepest position group is the second unit of linemen, who can support both the pass and the run. This veteran group knows what it takes to be consistent in the NFL. Robert Geathers and Wallace Gilberry will return to the team after both earning new contracts. Geathers has been a Bengal for his entire career, and although he isn't the same pass rusher he once was, he is a dynamic presence in the locker room. Gilberry bursted onto the scene last year with his best season as a pro. He was picked up during the season and ended up third on the team with 6.5 sacks.

Domata Peko is a rock solid run stopper whose infectious personality makes him one of the primary leaders on the team. Peko is joined by Brandon Thompson and Devon Still, 2 second year players looking to make an impact. Still could be a starter this year if he can improve on his pass rushing skills, which helped him get drafted in the second round in 2012. Thompson has a similar style to Peko, and a combination of Still and Thompson on the field in a 4-3 set to give Atkins a breather could be an effective second unit.

The final lineman that could push this team into a category of one of the best position groups of all time is rookie Margus Hunt. Hunt, a 6'8 former track and field star out of SMU, will be molded to play like Michael Johnson if Defensive Coordinator Mike Zimmer has his way. Hunt will work his way on the field in third down packages, probably across from Johnson. Imagine trying to throw the ball over those two huge linemen with their hands up.

The Bengals have a lot to work with on the defensive line. The defense could be dominant this season if the line steps up like last year in the battle in the trenches. A standout defensive line makes the entire defense better, including a weaker secondary, which the Bengals could have if Adam Jones and Dre Kirkpatrick are not on the field.

Sunday, June 9, 2013

6-man rotation could help Cueto

The Reds last year went 162 games without having to use a starter besides the pitchers in the opening day rotation. The ability to keep pitchers healthy has been more of a struggle this year for Cincinnati, as starter Johnny Cueto has been bothered by a strain in a back muscle since his playoff start last year. When Cueto pitches, opposing hitters struggle. The 19-game winner in 2012 is 3-0 with a 2.17 so far this season. He has 34 strikeouts, and opposing batters hit .157 against the righty. Cueto is also the best pitcher the Reds have on their home field. The bottom line is Cueto is a top 5 starter in the majors, but if he can't stay healthy, he is no use to the Reds.

A rotation with six pitchers may be the solution to Cueto's health concerns. It seems that Cueto can make a few starts in his normal schedule, but after those consecutive starts, he gets hurt again. Cueto labors at times on the mound, and may lack the ability to throw over 100 pitches on a consistent basis. Adding an extra pitcher to the rotation would give Cueto an extra day to recover from his previous outings on the hill.

Who would represent this extra pitcher in the rotation? Tony Cingrani, of course. Cingrani is another pitcher who could benefit from an extra day of rest. The hard throwing left hander can widen fans' eyes with his speedy fastball. Cingrani is certainly a fastball pitcher, but can mix in an occasional off speed pitch. He is also a strikeout pitcher, and runs up pitch counts because of his propensity for getting hitters to swing and miss.

The only two pitchers to worry about in a six man rotation are Bronson Arroyo and Mike Leake. Arroyo and Leake don't throw pitches at high speeds, so they don't need as much rest as Cueto, Mat Latos, Homer Bailey, and Cingrani. The best part about Arroyo and Leake, however, is their ability to adapt to situations and adjust to things being thrown at them throughout their careers. Both have maximized their talents by pitching smartly and not trying to overpower hitters. Leake has survived moves to the bullpen and to Triple A in his early history as a Red. Arroyo has managed to never miss a start, and has been the consummate professional since first entering the league with the Pirates in 2000. I think once again, in a six man rotation, Leake and Arroyo could adjust to a different situation.

Is Marvin Lewis on the hot seat?

Marvin Lewis is the longest tenured Head Coach in the NFL, right behind Bill Belichick of course. Lewis has rebuilt Cincinnati football into a consistent winner during his time as the Head Coach since taking over for Dick LeBeau in 2003. The Bengals have made it to the playoffs 3 of the past 4 seasons with Lewis at the helm, and the team is coming off of a ten win season. However, Lewis has had his roller coaster rides; with the successes he has had on the field, there have also been some negative moments. 

The Bengals have had 2 four win seasons under Marvin Lewis, and have finished at the median record of 8-8 three times in his 10 seasons. The Bengals have also gone 0-4 in the playoffs under Lewis, including three routs at the hands of opposing teams. The 2005 loss to Pittsburgh was more understandable, considering the Bengals lost Carson Palmer on his first pass attempt, which knocked the wind out of everybody in Paul Brown Stadium. 

The 2009 and 2011 playoff defeats were inexcusable. The Bengals clashed with two rookie quarterbacks in Mark Sanchez and TJ Yates, and they were thoroughly outplayed by the opponents. Last season's playoff defeat in the rematch against the Texans was much closer. The Bengals could have won the game if Andy Dalton hit AJ Green late in the fourth quarter in the end zone. But Lewis' coaching demeanor worries me as a fan. He seems so tentative and nervous when the games start. Lewis puts together cautious game plans to keep the games close, but not only are these games close most of the time, they are also very low scoring and ugly slugfests. 

In 2009, the Bengals had to come from behind in low scoring, tight games many times in order to get the win. Last season, in the decisive Week 16 matchup with the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Bengals edged out a 13-10 victory, despite only having 14 rushing yards. Lewis is extremely defensive minded, and to his credit, the strategy has worked out under Mike Zimmer. I would like to see Lewis allow Jay Gruden to open up the playbook a little bit more in order to maximize the talents of Dalton and his supporting cast.  

This year's Bengals roster is Marvin Lewis' most talented. The team has a lot of depth, and some of the best players in the league at certain positions such as AJ Green at wide receiver and Geno Atkins at defensive tackle. If Lewis fails to make the playoffs for the third consecutive year, I could see the Bengals finally letting him go. Mike Zimmer and Jay Gruden are prime candidates for a Head Coaching gig, and if this season does not live up to the hype, it may be time to turn in the different direction of a Bengal assistant for the leadership of the team.

Jermaine Lawrence is UC's latest high expectations player

First there was Yancy Gates and Lance Stephenson. Now, Jermaine Lawrence steps into the fold. Lawrence is Mick Cronin's prize catch of the latest recruiting class, ranked 19th in the nation out of any high school prospect according to ESPN. Lawrence is 6'9, 190 pounds, and received offers from top schools in the nation such as Kansas, Syracuse, and UCLA.

Lawrence averaged 18.6 points, 13 rebounds, and 6.5 blocks per game his junior season for Pope John XXIII high school in New Jersey. That junior season put Lawrence on the map as an elite prospect. Lawrence is going to have to be a scorer for UC, who now is without Cashmere Wright and JaQuan Parker. Lawrence and Sean Kilpatrick will have to team up to form a combination similar to 2012, when Yancy Gates and Kilpatrick led the Bearcats to the Sweet 16. Gates was more of a punishing force in the paint for the Bearcats, but it looks like Lawrence is a more developed scorer right now than Gates was out of high school. Lawrence is more athletic than Gates, but he does need to add about 30 pounds of weight to compete with some of the post players he will see in NCAA competition.

Lawrence's statistical production decreased his senior season. He averaged 13.3 points per game and 7.5 rebounds. However, he shot over fifty percent from the field and showed solid shot selection against the competition. The Bearcats will almost assuredly start Lawrence in their opening game. He is the most highly touted player the program has landed in quite some time. The question is, can he gel with the rest of the starters to make the team a contender?

Lawrence, Shaquille Thomas, Kilpatrick, and Justin Jackson will all most likely be in Cronin's starting five, with the point guard position up for grabs between Jeremiah Davis III, Summit product Kevin Johnson, and Troy Caupain. Johnson and Caupain will be true freshman, and the point guard position is a lot for a freshman to handle. However, if UC wants to start a new foundation for rising talent, there will be 2 freshman starters next year. Kilpatrick will need to be the floor leader, but the Bearcats will rely on Lawrence to generate offense.

Saturday, June 8, 2013

Should Votto bat second?

There is an interesting column in the latest issue of Sports Illustrated making the case for MLB teams' best hitter, and specifically Joey Votto, to bat second on the lineup card. The article argues that by hitting second in the order, Votto would create more runs for the Reds because he wouldn't be behind Zack Cozart, an easier out. By Votto following Shin-Soo Choo in the order, the Reds would have more opportunities for the middle of the order to drive in runs with fewer outs and better base path situations. The article also argues that Votto would see a few more plate appearances each month, and hitting at the plate in more intense situations late in games.

I actually agree with this new age strategy for the batting order. Of course, Dusty Baker almost assuredly will not change his current lineup, which has remained in tact since Ryan Ludwick went down, so this suggestion is probably not even worth discussing. Hypothetically, if Votto moved to second in the order after Shin-Soo Choo, here is what the new batting order could look like:

Shin-Soo Choo
Joey Votto
Brandon Phillips 
Jay Bruce 
Todd Frazier
Xavier Paul
Zack Cozart 
Ryan Hanigan/Devin Mesoraco
Pitcher

This lineup does seem more appealing in terms of run production. There is no easy out in the top half of this Reds batting order, and the lower half has some formidable hitters as well. The lineup would put less pressure on Cozart to produce consistently with his above average hitting ability. This batting order just balances out the Reds' strengths better, and when Ryan Ludwick returns, he could be inserted into either the fourth or sixth spot in the order, moving Bruce and Frazier down a spot, or not changing the hitting positions at all. If I was the manager of this team, I would try this batting order out for a few games. What is there to lose? The Reds aren't hitting too well lately, scoring more than 4 runs zero times since May 31. Cincinnati needs a solution to its hitting woes if it seeks to keep up with baseball's powerhouse, the St. Louis Cardinals. Moving Joey Votto to second in the order could fix a lot of problems.

Mandatory Minicamp: What to watch for

The Cincinnati Bengals are now past the stage of the OTA's and on to the mandatory minicamp as training camp inches closer and closer. The minicamp, starting this Tuesday and running through Thursday, features everybody on the roster and will surely be helpful to the coaching staff in figuring out who has the jumpstart on playing time.

Andre Smith, who has been absent during the offseason, will be back on the field for the minicamp. Smith signed a 3 year extension with the Bengals after taking hold of the starting right tackle job for the last 2 seasons. It is widely believed Smith was absent from OTA's because of a minor weight issue, an issue that Smith has hopefully taken care of through strenuous and private workouts over the last few weeks. It will be interesting to see how Smith looks when he arrives in Cincinnati. Will he be closer to his playing weight of 330 pounds, or has he ballooned to his rookie weight, when he broke his foot in training camp, of 350 pounds or more?

The experimentation of the offense will continue this week. Jay Gruden believes the Bengals will take major steps this season, and these opportunities to practice with everyone on the field are invaluable to the growth of the offensive chemistry. Andy Dalton says he has improved his deep ball accuracy this offseason. He should get some looks at one on one coverages on AJ Green and Marvin Jones on deep routes because of the complexity of double tight end sets the Bengals have planned with first round pick Tyler Eifert and Jermaine Gresham. Mohamed Sanu will also display his toughness over the middle on intermediate routes, where Dalton excels with his accuracy given he has the proper protection.

Also, it seems as though Gio Bernard is vying for the starting running back gig. Bernard has impressed Hue Jackson and Marvin Lewis since becoming the first running back taken in the 2013 NFL Draft. Bernard has all the tools to be a standout in the West Coast system, and since he is so versatile, he might beat out Benjarvus Green-Ellis. Green-Ellis is great at fighting for yards, but he isn't a superb pass catcher like Bernard. The competition will continue on through training camp, but Bernard should see plenty of snaps this week.

Finally, Rey Maualuga needs to step up and lead the defense. Maualuga is in the best shape of his career, according to reports. He has been quiet throughout the offseason, but if he really wants to make up for a poor performance in the playoff loss to Houston, Maualuga should take a more vocal role on the defense. The leaders of the defensive unit seem to be Leon Hall, Domata Peko, and Geno Atkins. These three are standouts on the field, and Maualuga should emulate them not only to gain some swagger in his play, but to also become a more noteworthy professional throughout the league.

Friday, June 7, 2013

Reds vs. Cardinals Series Preview

This weekend's 3 game set at Great American Ballpark features two of the best teams in the entire MLB. The series has huge implications in the NL Central Division race. The Reds are currently 3 games back of St. Louis, so a sweep is necessary to even the division standings. The Reds are reeling a little bit right now. They just lost a series to the Rockies, an
d could have locked down a sweep against the Pirates if the bullpen closed the door last Sunday. Instead, the Reds fell back to 12 games above .500 at this point and need to prove that they are legitimate contenders for the pennant. The team has a record against winning teams well below .500, so Cincinnati needs to pick it up against the teams it might face in October.

Cardinals at Reds Game 1: Mike Leake will be going up against Adam Wainwright in tonight's opening game of the series. In his last 3 starts, Leake is 2-0 with a 0.44 ERA. He has been as good as anyone in the majors over the last few weeks. Wainwright has consistently been one of the best pitchers out there, and he is 3-0 in his last 3 starts. Tonight is shaping up to be a pitchers duel, but with Brandon Phillips returning to the lineup after dealing with a bruised forearm, the Reds could have the edge.

Cardinals at Reds Game 2: The Cardinals will send one of their young pitchers on the hill in lefty Tyler Lyons. Lyons is 2-1 with a 2.66 ERA. He has made 3 starts this season and suffered his first defeat in his last start. He will be opposed by Mat Latos. Latos should have earned the win in his last start against the Pirates, but the Reds blew a lead and lost in 11 innings. Joey Votto is 1 for his last 12 at bats and 3 for his last 23, so it will be vital for the Reds' best and number 3 hitter in the lineup to get going in this series.

Cardinals at Reds Game 3: Lance Lynn will go up against Bronson Arroyo on Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN in the best and probably most underrated pitching matchup of the series. Lynn came on the scene last year for the Cardinals in the rotation, proving to be a plus starter in the league. Lynn has only lost once this season and is tied for second in the majors in wins with 8. Bronson Arroyo can be dominant or awful on the mound against the Cardinals, depending on if his breaking ball is spinning well. Arroyo glided through 8 innings against the Rockies in his last start, and if he pitches close to the way he did against Colorado, the Reds should have a chance to take the series.

Thursday, June 6, 2013

UC Football: ND transfers have chance to excel


The Cincinnati Bearcats are starting fresh this season under new Head Coach Tommy Tuberville, who bolted Texas Tech to take the job with the Bearcats after the departure of Butch Jones. Tuberville has experience with successful teams; he coached the Auburn Tigers to a 13-0 2004 season and a 11-2 2006 season. Tuberville enters 2013 with a lot of returning talent. Brendon Kay returns at quarterback for the Bearcats after he showed flashes of brilliance last year. Ralph David Abernathy IV also has a chance to be special at the running back position with his electrifying speed.

The Bearcats will enter the 2013 season with a new tight end, a transfer player from Notre Dame. Jake Golic will be in line for the starting gig in 2013 after playing 3 games in 2010 for the Irish. Golic is a big target at 6'4, 245 pounds, and has played in a winning system. He should be a good blocker at the very least for the Bearcats, who could use some experience at the tight end position. Golic will understand what it's like to play Cincinnati football since he is coming to the team from Brian Kelly's system, a system he perfected while at the helm for the Bearcats.

Gunner Kiel, the top quarterback in the 2012 recruiting class, also opted to transfer to UC after he thought he wouldn't be able to start at Notre Dame, buried behind Everett Golson and Tommy Rees on the depth chart. Kiel will have to sit out this season due to the transfer rule, but when he is eligible, Kiel will be an impact starter for the Bearcats with 3 years of eligibility. Kiel is mobile and has a powerful arm, perfect for Tuberville's offense. He will have plenty of time to learn the new offense, and since he grew up in Indiana, Kiel will be close to his home in Cincinnati. Kiel will undoubtedly be UC's best quarterback since Tony Pike as soon as he steps on the field, and in due time, I believe he will be the best quarterback to ever put on a UC uniform.

All Star Conversation: Pitchers

The Reds have a number of pitchers that have impacted the team's successful 2013 campaign thus far. The starting rotation is among the best in baseball, and the staff as a whole is 4th in team ERA in the majors at 3.34. The Reds are behind both the Cardinals and Pirates, NL Central foes, in that category. The team ERA would be much lower without the likes of Manny Parra, Jonathan Broxton, and Logan Ondrusek having inflated ERA's this season. There are a number of pitchers on the Reds who warrant All Star consideration. Aroldis Chapman was the only Reds pitcher to make the NL team last year. There could be a few more pitchers representing Cincinnati than just Chapman this time around. Here are the players that Reds fans could see in an NL uniform in July:

Mat Latos: Latos is still unbeaten on the year at 5-0, and when he has pitched over the last 2 years, the Reds seem to find a way to win. Latos has great stuff. He features a 95 miles per hour fastball and a nasty slider. Latos is second in the team's current rotation with a 2.90 ERA, and he would surely welcome his first All Star appearance.

Mike Leake: Surprisingly, the Reds' fifth starter has had the best year of any starter on the team. Leake is a crafty pitcher who models his game after his peer, Bronson Arroyo. He gets hitters out by outwitting them, not by overpowering them. Leake is 5-2 with a 2.75 ERA, and if he continues to earn wins, he will certainly warrant votes.

Aroldis Chapman: Chapman is a virtual lock to make his second straight All Star appearance. Fans would love to see the 100 miles per hour fastball on display against the league's best hitters, and Chapman has the numbers to back up his unbelievable pitches. Chapman stands at 3-2 on the year as the Reds' closer with a 2.42 ERA. He also has 15 saves in 17 opportunities, and has struck out 46 batters, which is fourth on the team.

Tuesday, June 4, 2013

All Star conversation: Position players

It is now June and we are just over a month away from the All Star Game. The Cincinnati Reds have the 2nd best record in baseball, and will surely garner attention from voters. I could see a few Reds fielders starting in the game, and the dominant pitching staff will surely be represented as well. The All Star game is a great opportunity for the best players in the game of baseball to come together and celebrate the sport they love.

Joey Votto-No surprise here. Votto cranked up his play in May, carrying the Reds with a batting average almost at .400 for the month and with 6 homers. His offensive wins above replacement is tops on the team at 2.6, and he has a ridiculous .454 on base percentage. Votto is certainly in contention for his second MVP award this year, and should be a lock to start the All Star Game at first base. 

Shin-Soo Choo-As long as Choo can work his way out of the slump he has had recently, he should be in the outfield to start the All Star Game. Choo is a top 3 leadoff hitter in the MLB, and works the at bat almost as well as Votto. Choo leads the Reds in homers with 10, and his .438 on base percentage is not far behind Votto's. 

Brandon Phillips-If I had to pick an MVP for this Reds team so far, it would have to be Phillips. His play in the field at second base is unmatched, and the 45 RBI's that Phillips sports has won this team a lot of games. It would be a shocker if Phillips isn't on the NL team. 

Jay Bruce-Bruce is a streaky hitter, but when he is hitting well, there is almost nobody better. Bruce has been much more consistent this year by not burying himself with a low average to start the season. He has become more disciplined at the plate. Bruce is starting to hit for power again with 9 homers. He also has a .279 batting average, 38 RBI's, and is rock solid in right field. Bruce has made the All Star team in the past and is on track to do so again.

Todd Frazier-Frazier is my Wild Card for the team. He didn't hit any homers in May, but was one of the MLB's best hitters in April. Frazier is starting to regain his confidence in his stroke, and should bring his average back up to the .280 range in due time. Frazier still has 6 home runs and 32 RBI's, and definitely represents everything Reds want in a player and teammate. Watch out for Frazier if his numbers climb in June.

State of the franchise: Linebackers

The Bengals enter the 2013 season with a top 10 defensive unit. The team excels under Defensive Coordinator Mike Zimmer year after year. However, the linebacker position is in a state of flux and is by far the Bengals' weakest position group. With the exception of Vontaze Burfict, the unit heavily underperformed last year and is looking for a massive rebounding campaign. Here is a look at what the position group looks like from top to bottom in 2013:

Starters:
SAM: James Harrison-Harrison will certainly be relied on to upgrade the position from Manny Lawson last season. Harrison is coming off of a 6 sack season with Pittsburgh. He is capable of getting many more sacks this year pass rushing behind a dominant defensive line with Geno Atkins, Michael Johnson, and Carlos Dunlap. Harrison won't be asked to cover as much as he did with the Steelers, but his rushing and leadership abilities will help the unit.

MLB: Rey Maualuga-Mauluga was quite frankly awful last season in the middle. He was second on the team in tackles, but couldn't cover the tight end position at all. He looked slow and out of shape for much of the year, and one could question his hustle on the field. The Bengals re-signed Maualuga to a two year deal, thinking he has a lot to prove this season. He'd better do just that, or the Bengals won't hesitate to move Burfict inside.

WILL: Vontaze Burfict-Burfict was fabulous after being a UDFA last year. He led the team in tackles with 127, and consistently showed up week after week with standout games. Burfict is the most talented player in the group and can be a game changer. He might be the second best young linebacker in the game behind Cincinnati native Luke Kuechly.

Backups: Emmanuel Lamur-Lamur could easily step into a starter role this year. He was another UDFA out of Kansas State, and possesses unbelievable athletic ability. Lamur will see plenty of time on the field this year, especially on 3rd downs. He is so athletic with his 6'4, 240 pound frame, that he is the best coverage backer the Bengals have on their roster. Lamur has bulked up this offseason and could be primed for a breakout year.

Vinny Rey-Rey is a solid special teams man for the Bengals. He is one of the leaders on the special teams unit, and will make the team for that reason. He is a consistent backup linebacker who saw some time on the field last year, even earning a sack.

On the bubble: Jayson DiManche, Brandon Joiner, Aaron Maybin, Dontay Moch, and Sean Porter. These 5 players will likely compete for 2 spots on the team. Sean Porter will probably make it. He was a talented player for Texas A&M and was the team's 4th round pick. Porter has some upside as a potential future WILL starter. I think Moch and Maybin have an outside chance of making the Bengals as backups to Harrison. Maybin was a 1st round pick and has bounced around the league with the Bills and Jets. He has the talent to be a contributor to the team this year after he had a 6 sack season 2 years ago. Moch was a 3rd round pick by the Bengals a couple years ago. He has all the speed in the world to win one on one match ups, but lacks the ability to stay healthy. DiManche and Joiner are 2 other UDFA's with a lot of talent. Joiner has a great success story as a player to overcome a jail sentence and reform to compete for a spot in the NFL. DiManche could be this year's Burfict if he adjusts to the NFL level well.

Monday, June 3, 2013

Dalton's passing weapons

The Bengals enter this season with something to prove offensively. The team ranked 17th last year in passing offense, which fits the bill of a pretty average passing team with not many weapons besides AJ Green. The Bengals were in a rhythm early in the season with Andrew Hawkins, AJ Green, and Mohamed Sanu playing well on the outside and in the slot. However, when Sanu got hurt in the ladder part of the season, the team spiraled offensively, culminating in a quarterback rating in the postseason of 44.7 for Andy Dalton. 

The Bengals made sure the receiving threats would be improved this year for Dalton in his 3rd NFL season. Green is back and could have a historic year for the Bengals. Green caught 97 balls for 1350 yards and 11 td's for the Bengals last season, but had some drops and was double covered a great deal. Green should improve even more this season and will catch at least 100 passes. Jermaine Gresham will look for a big pay day after this season and will try to improve on a Pro Bowl season where he didn't look like a Pro Bowler towards the end of the year. Gresham is a bruiser who is athletic enough to separate from linebackers and big enough to outmaneuver defensive backs. He will team up with Tyler Eifert to form a deadly duo. Look for the Bengals to run a lot of offensive sets with Green, Sanu, Gresham, and Eifert on the field. 

Sanu, Andrew Hawkins, and Marvin Jones will expand upon what they did last season. Sanu and Jones were rookies last year, and Hawkins was basically the same thing after not being much of a receiving threat his rookie year. Hawkins and Sanu can each be very tough to cover in the slot, and Jones has the athleticism to break away on deep passes. Rookies Cobi Hamilton and Gio Bernard will assist Dalton in catching passes as well. Hamilton is a physical receiver who isn't afraid to go over the middle, and Bernard has explosiveness. Alex Smith and Orson Charles could each see some time in the West Coast Offense as well. 

Overall, the Bengals are pretty set with weapons in the receiving game for training camp. There should be some great battles at wide receiver and tight end, and a couple of decent players will get cut from the team. If the Bengals can sustain passing success over the course of the season, the sky is the limit.

A bolstered bullpen makes the Reds virtually unbeatable

The Reds last season coasted to the postseason thanks in large part to an almost unstoppable bullpen. Aroldis Chapman, Sean Marshall, Jonathan Broxton, Jose Arredondo, and Alfredo Simon each had ERA's under 3, and Chapman also had 38 saves. The bullpen this season has been much less reliable. Broxton blew a lead and a chance for a sweep of the Pirates yesterday, but there have been problems in the pen all season long.

Sean Marshall has bounced on and off the DL this season, leaving the Reds without a solid 7th inning man and a premier left handed specialist. Marshall has long been considered the best against lefties out of the bullpen in the game, and having to use Manny Parra in that role has caused the team to struggle somewhat. Parra has a 6.23 ERA in 10 appearances. Neither Broxton, Chapman, nor Logan Ondrusek have been nearly as effective this season. Chapman has blown 2 saves at this juncture and has looked disinterested on the mound at times. Broxton has looked lost on the mound for most of this year. His best pitch, the fastball, has seen a decrease in velocity of at least 3 miles per hour. Broxton has allowed an opponents batting average of .241 and has an ERA of 4.63. Arredondo has been suspended this season by the Reds' Triple A affiliate, and Ondrusek didn't even make the opening day roster.

Sam LeCure has by far been the Reds' most reliable bullpen pitcher. He picked up his long man role from last season right where he left off with a 1.16 ERA in 23.1 innings pitched. LeCure has tremendous control of his pitches and is as crafty a pitcher as any. Alfredo Simon and JJ Hoover are also decent options for the team, although I wouldn't put them in the game in a tight situation in the ladder innings. The Reds better hope Broxton finds himself as the summer moves along after the team invested in the big man for two more years. Chapman and Broxton were in such a rhythm last season in the 8th and 9th innings that the game was virtually over after the 7th if the Reds had the lead. The Reds are one of the best pitching teams in the majors, but unless the bullpen gets a little better, the outings the starters have provided the team won't matter much.