Thursday, May 30, 2013

Is left field in trouble for the Reds?

The Cincinnati Reds have the 2nd best record in baseball. There is no doubt that this team is reaching its potential for greatness this season. However, a key moment happened yesterday against the Cleveland Indians that may have cost the team the game in the Reds' 5-2 loss. In the top of the 6th inning, Xavier Paul found himself up to bat with the bases loaded down a run. Paul grounded into a double play, ending the Reds' threat that inning. That brings me to my main point. Can the Reds be successful long term by playing patchwork outfielders for the large majority of the summer?

Ryan Ludwick went down during opening day of the season. He has had surgery and isn't supposed to be back until at least mid-August. I don't expect Ludwick to be in the lineup until early September, and who knows if he will be the effective slugger he once was when he returns. Chris Heisey, who is currently out with an injury of his own, was very underwhelming when he was filling in for Ludwick. He hit just .173 in 75 at bats. Heisey also struck out 20 times and had an OBP of .195. He is currently trying to work his way back on the field and into the starting lineup.

Donald Lutz, Derrick Robinson, and Xavier Paul have each been admirable in replacing Ludwick, but none of the three has ever had a full season to play every day. Xavier Paul and Robinson were both picked up in free agency over the last two years. They were not sought after players when they were available. Donald Lutz is still just a prospect learning the game. He was called up from Double A and is virtually unknown in a long term role. These three can't be counted on to play well for almost a full season. They haven't done it before, and the upside for Robinson and Paul is limited. Paul is a very good situational player and fourth outfielder, but he doesn't generate the power needed to play left field every day. He has just 3 homers this season, but to his credit has a .393 OBP and an average of .277. Robinson's best tool is his fielding and running ability. He would be a good leadoff hitter for the Reds, but the team is set at that spot. 

The best case scenario for Cincinnati right now is for Paul to continue to play well and for Heisey to hit well when he comes back from the DL. Heisey has the best skill set to be a long term option at left field; he just hasn't proven it. If Paul and Heisey can platoon effectively in the 6th spot in the batting order until September, more power to them. The organization would be very happy. If not, this team could be in trouble and unable to hold steady in the race with St. Louis and Pittsburgh. The Reds would then have to go the trade route and further deplete their farm system, which would be bad for the future of the team. Cincinnati has to hope the weight on the shoulders of the current left fielders isn't too much to bare and that they can continue to reach base at a high rate.




Stephenson's intensity is unmatched in NBA playoffs

If Lance Stephenson has a great game, the Pacers almost surely win. Stephenson, a 3rd year guard out of the University of Cincinnati, has taken some time to develop. Thanks to the patience of Larry Bird and Frank Vogel, Stephenson has become the barometer that the Pacers can measure their play off of each time they play as a unit.

Credit Stephenson for improving his play since being drafted in the second round. At Cincinnati for a single season, Stephenson was a very raw prospect. He was used to taking most of his team's shots from his high school days in Brooklyn, but Stephenson wasn't quite ready for that at the college level. He finished his only season at UC shooting 44 percent from the field and averaging 12.3 points per game. The Bearcats didn't make the NCAA tournament the only year Stephenson played for the team. He never seemed to truly fit Mick Cronin's scheme.

Fast forward three years and Lance Stephenson is the most impactful player on the Indiana Pacers, a team just 2 wins away from the NBA Finals. Stephenson isn't the best player on the team; that distinction goes to former XU player David West or Roy Hibbert. However, Stephenson is capable of electrifying an arena at any point in time in the game. Filling in for Danny Granger this season, Stephenson enjoyed a break out year at just 22 years of age. He has bulked up to 228 pounds since his college days, fitting the bruising mentality of the physical Pacers. The shooting guard will now be an every day player at the highest level. His game isn't dissimilar to Dwyane Wade's, the man who he has gone up against in the NBA Conference Finals.

Stephenson has an egotistic aura about him. He trash talked the Miami Heat last season from the bench by making a chocking sign with his hands. Stephenson never entered the games in that series. Now, Stephenson can back up his trash talking abilities. He is averaging 10.1 points per contest this postseason after averaging over 8 in the regular season. Stephenson is also averaging 7.7 rebounds a game, a strong suit in his playing abilities, along with 3.3 assists. He is averaging over 35 playoff minutes a game, showing just how much his team relies on him. Stephenson has been seen talking smack to LeBron James, the man who guards him a great deal, in between free throws and trying to get in his head. This seems to embolden Stephenson's game. He is coming off of his best postseason performance in which he scored 20 points while shooting 9 of 15 from the field. He also iced the Knicks' Conference Finals chances by recording a double double in Game 6. He scored 25 points that day and also had 10 rebounds.

As the series rolls along, Lance Stephenson only gets better. This young man lives for those clutch situations in a game. I trust Lance Stephenson with the ball in his hands in a crucial moment in a game as much as or more than I trust LeBron James in the same situation. Each time he steps out onto the court, Stephenson seems to learn something new about himself and his style of play. If Stephenson can score over 20 points again tonight in Miami, I guarantee you that the Pacers will win. Keep an eye out for number 1 because he is really the number 1 player in terms of importance for Indiana.

Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Local standouts becoming playoff legends

Game 4 of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals is now in the books with the Pacers evening up the series against the heavy favorites to repeat the title, the Miami Heat. The Pacers tied the series at 2 with a 99-92 victory in a large part due to 2 starters with local ties, David West and Lance Stephenson.

West, the 6'9, 240 pound anchor in the paint, played at Xavier until 2003 when he was drafted 18th overall by the Hornets. West set the foundation for an Elite 8 team a year after his departure, and led the Musketeers to 94 wins as the star player. West averaged 20.1 points and 11.8 rebounds a game his senior year, which earned him the National Player of the Year award.

When West joined the ranks of the NBA, he teamed up with Chris Paul to form a formidable duo of young rising stars. West was named to the All Star team 2 times in 2007-08 and 2008-09, when he averaged over 20 points and 8 rebounds each of those seasons. With the Hornets rebuilding in 2011, West joined the upstart Indiana Pacers and immediately guided them to the playoffs. West is enjoying another rock solid season in his contract year, scoring 17.1 points and rebounding 7.7 missed shots per game. West could cash in big time this offseason after signing the 2 year deal worth $20 million. I definitely see him sticking with Indiana for as much as a 50% pay increase this time around.

West never had much playoff experience in the past. He has made it to the Conference Finals for the first time. West made the first round of the playoffs with the Hornets, but in each of his 2 seasons with the Pacers, he has made it deeper and deeper into the most important rounds. West made the huge play to swat away a pass from LeBron James to clinch Game 2 of the NBA Semifinals. Right behind Paul George, West has been the key scorer for the Pacers. West has averaged 16.4 points per game in the playoffs while shooting over 49 percent from the field. He has also averaged 6.9 boards and 2.1 assists. At times, West has had to guard the best player on the court in MVP LeBron James. He has done a masterful job in those situations, which come sparingly because of the massive amount of energy it takes to defend James.

If the Pacers are going to pull an upset and have a chance to win their first ever NBA Championship, David West is going to continue to have to be the leader on the court. He is the oldest starter on the team, and has the most experience being the top dog on a team. West keeps his young teammates in check and is the heart and soul of Frank Vogel's strategy. West can take advantage of mismatches in the paint against the Heat because he is more powerful than Chris Bosh and more athletic than Chris "The Birdman" Andersen. The Pacers are surprising a lot of people across the nation right now, and the 32 year old power forward and former Musketeer David West has a lot to do with the team's playoff run.

Mesoraco's potential dwindling?

When Devin Mesoraco first came up to the Reds late in 2011, most fans expected the catcher to be an All Star catcher very quickly. Mesoraco was a first round pick out of high school in Pennsylvania, and after some struggles at the plate as a teenager, he tore up the Reds' minor league system. Mesoraco, a 6'1, 230 pound player, spanned all three levels of the minors in 2010, hitting .302 with 26 home runs. He also hit .289 with 15 homers in Triple A Louisville in 2011. Now, at 24 years old, Mesoraco is at a crossroads in his second season in the majors.

Mesoraco has been partly mishandled by Reds manager Dusty Baker. Baker has put his full trust in Ryan Hanigan, and therefore gives the longtime veteran a majority of the starts. Hanigan is your quintessential underrated player. He won't put up flashy numbers like Mesoraco can, but Hanigan handles the pitching staff with great ease. Mesoraco has typically been given two starts a week when Mat Latos and Mike Leake are pitching. That gives Mesoraco a slim 8 at bats per week give or take a couple, not nearly enough for the catcher to fully lock in at the plate on a consistent basis. Mesoraco has dramatically improved defensively. Latos and Leake are having career years pitching thus far, which has a great deal to do with Mesoraco's signs as the backstop.

Devin Mesoraco has been consistently average at the plate in Cincinnati. The young catcher has the power swing to hit over 20 home runs a year. He also can make enough contact at the plate to stay consistently above the .250 mark in batting average. However, he hit only .212 in 165 plate appearances with 5 home runs and 33 strike outs in 2012. This season, Mesoraco is hitting .229 in 83 at bats. He has 2 home runs and 12 RBI's. There have been flashes of brilliance in his bat. Mesoraco hit the game tying home run in a comeback effort in the 9th inning of a 5-4 victory over Atlanta and closer Craig Kimbrel. Baker has considered switching his rotation to give more playing time to his future at the position. If the Reds want Mesoraco to develop into a consistent hitter, he should be integrated into catching for some of the other pitchers in the rotation. The goal for the Reds should be to have Mesoraco start in the All Star game when Cincinnati hosts All Star weekend in 2015. By that time, Mesoraco should become an everyday major leaguer. I think Mesoraco compares well to Russell Martin of the Pirates. Martin hit 21 homers with the Yankees last season. Mesoraco cannot continue to develop at a snails pace or it could really hurt his chances of becoming the player the Reds drafted him to develop into
.

Sunday, May 26, 2013

Golson's departure opens door for Hendrix

Shocking news came Saturday night for Irish nation when Everett Golson was said to be no longer enrolled at the school. Golson led the Irish to a National Championship berth last season and progressed well throughout the year. Golson's release from the program is a crushing blow and could set the program back for three years. However, there could be hope in the arm of junior quarterback Andrew Hendrix.

Hendrix, a Moeller product, was considered a top prospect coming out of high school and has shown promise in his competition with Tommy Rees over the last couple years. His main attributes are his running ability and a big arm. That arm has more strength than anybody's on the roster. Hendrix's arm is raw though and not as accurate as Golson's, let alone most starting college quarterbacks at elite programs. 

Hendrix runs powerfully and is ideal for Brian Kelly's duel threat, spread offense. He has a strong frame that can punish defenders, and is fast enough to run away from many defensive linemen and linebackers. Hendrix can run read option plays, which have become extremely popular during the last few years in football. 

If the Irish want to have a chance to compete in a BCS game next season, they should give the Cincinnati native Hendrix, not the less talented and inconsistent Tommy Rees, the nod at starting quarterback. The loss of Golson is sudden and stunning, but a gunslinger like Hendrix may be able to stop the negative momentum of the program for a season or so.

Friday, May 24, 2013

How to handle Choo's impending free agency

Reds fans should be enjoying this season. After all, it isn't every year that the Reds are 11 games over .500 in late May. That certainly didn't happen in 2010 and 2012 during Cincinnati's playoff runs. Much of the team's success is due to the contributions of leadoff hitter and center fielder Shin-Soo Choo. Choo was acquired in a 3 team deal that sent away Drew Stubbs and top notch prospect Didi Gregorius. Choo has been hitting well above the .300 mark for most of the early season, and currently stands at a perfect .300 average with a ridiculous OBP of .449. To put that number in perspective, Choo has reached base just a few times less than Joey Votto this season. Choo is the reason the Reds are so far in front of most MLB teams at this point. If Drew Stubbs was still manning center field for the Reds, the team would probably be just a few wins above .500 at this point. Choo has also hit 9 homers and driven in 19 runs.  He has 5 stolen bases and with the exception of a single game against the Cardinals in which he made a couple of errors, Choo has done a masterful job in his transition to center field.

Choo is making $7.375 million this season and is set to hit the open market at the conclusion of this year. He will probably seek double of what he is making right now. Scott Boras is Choo's agent. Boras is notorious for milking teams for as much money as he can get for his clients. In Choo's case, the new contract could get a little tricky for the 30 year old. I am sure Choo likes playing in Cincinnati. He plays a prominent role on a consistent winner with a solid clubhouse. Choo didn't experience winning in Seattle or Cleveland with the exception of 2007 when he appeared in 6 games for the ALCS bound Indians. There is also not much media scrutiny in Cincinnati, which the players really enjoy. A big market club like the Mets could offer Choo a max level deal worth almost $20 million per season, but I could see Choo taking a slight pay cut to stay in Cincinnati.

The Reds also have the dilemma of Triple A center fielder Billy Hamilton. Hamilton is the 11th best prospect in baseball and broke a record with 155 stolen bases for Single A Dayton and Double A Pensacola last year. Hamilton is 22 years old and should be ready to start next season at the major league level. He is hitting .246 at the leadoff spot for Louisville this season with 2 homers, 13 RBI's, and 15 stolen bases. The Reds are happy with Choo, but signing him long term would push back Hamilton's development.

If I was Walt Jocketty, I would sign Choo to a 4 year, $50 million dollar deal. This is a fair value for an aging, but rock solid veteran. Choo would be a Red until his age would warrant him not receiving a mega deal. Ryan Ludwick was signed to a two year deal this offseason. I would keep Hamilton in Triple A in 2014, and let Ludwick, Choo, and Jay Bruce be the every day outfield next season. Then, in 2015, when Hamilton is 24 years old, he could play center field and Choo could be moved to left. Ludwick would be out of the picture, and Bruce would remain in right field. Hamilton could bat in the leadoff spot, where his skills are prototypical for that position on the lineup card, and Choo could be moved to 2nd in the order.

Bernard brings explosiveness to Bengals

When the Bengals picked Giovani Bernard as the first running back in this year's draft class, they made it known that they seek an impact player running the ball now and in the future. Bernard is only 21 years old and was highly recruited out of high school. He was committed to play for Charlie Weis at Notre Dame before he was fired and Brian Kelly took the job. In two years at UNC, Bernard showed that he could do it all. He rushed the ball 239 times his redshirt freshman season for 1253 yards and a yards per carry rate of 5.2. He also caught 45 passes and scored a total of 14 touchdowns. Those numbers stack up well with anyone in the collegiate game.

Giovani Bernard played much better his sophomore season for the Tar Heels. This kid has had major success at every level he has played the game of football. Bernard averaged 6.7 yards per carry and totaled 1228 rushing yards and 490 receiving yards. Bernard was not only the primary threat in the UNC offense, but he was by far the ACC's most electrifying player last season. I would argue that behind Tavon Austin, Bernard was the most explosive player in this year's draft. He found the end zone a total of 19 times in 2012; 12 out of the backfield, 5 receiving, and 2 punt returns, including the 73-yard game winner to put away NC State with 13 seconds left on the clock. Bernard capped off that day with 303 total yards and 3 touchdowns in an unbelievable performance.

Now that he has signed his 4-year deal with Cincinnati, Bernard will battle for the majority of the carries on the Bengals with Benjarvus Green-Ellis, Cedric Peerman, and Rex Burkhead. I don't believe Bernard Scott and Boom Herron will make the team so I will leave them out of the mix here. Green-Ellis was the workhorse back last season. He isn't a dynamic, breakaway runner like many of the best NFL running backs, but he managed to put up 1,094 yards and 3.9 yards per carry as the 12th best back in the league. Green-Ellis will start the season as the lead ballcarrier, but expect Bernard to take over in that role by midseason. Bernard's receiving ability is elite. Green-Ellis has been incapable of catching the ball out of the backfield thus far. The West Coast Offense demands flexibility in the running back position, and Bernard offers the team that attribute.

Giovani Bernard can also take it to the house whenever he touches the ball. Bernard's long run was 68 yards last season, while Green-Ellis' was 48. I don't think Bernard will have the impact that Ray Rice has had on the Ravens during his career, but there's no reason Bernard couldn't be similar to Tampa Bay's Doug Martin, who was actually better than Rice during the regular season. I'm excited to watch this young player in training camp because he seems determined to prove that he is the best running back of the draft class. I also think he believes he can help the team win in whatever ways Jay Gruden utilizes him.

Thursday, May 23, 2013

Xavier's incoming freshmen

Next season, Xavier will be one of the younger teams in college basketball. Isaiah Philmore will be the only player on scholarship who is a senior. The rest of the roster will have at least a couple of years to put their mark on Xavier's rich basketball history. The Musketeers made 4 out of the last 5 Sweet 16's before last season, and to get back there in next year's tournament, they will rely on some talented young players. Chris Mack will show off his ability to bring in new talent next year with some incoming freshman, a couple of players on the roster who were ineligible last year, and a couple of transfers.

Brandon Randolph is the pride of Xavier's Class of 2013 in recruiting. Randolph is not dissimilar from current point guard Semaj Christon. Randolph will probably split time with Dee Davis as the backup point guard and will undoubtedly be the first or second player off the bench for Mack. Randolph, from Inglewood, California, was rated as the 19th best high school senior point guard in the nation by ESPN.  Randolph will be joined by Kamall Richards and Aleksandar Vezenkov. Richards will most likely fill a similar role as James Farr did last season. He will not see many minutes right away. 

Vezenkov is an intriguing prospect. He is from Bulgaria and plays professionally for Aris-Greece. He averages 4.3 points per game on the team. Vezenkov also played on the FIBA Euro U-16 team in 2011, leading the team in scoring with 27.1 points per game. The combo forward stands almost 6'9 and has a sweet shooting stroke. If he can develop a feel for the American NCAA game, Vezenkov might have the inside track to start along with Philmore in the front court. 


Xavier basketball 2013-14 outlook for returning players

After a disappointing 17-14 finish a year after a Sweet 16 birth, the Musketeers look to rebound and return to the NCAA Tournament. The Musketeers will no longer be playing in the A-10. The team is moving to the newly formed Big East with the Catholic 7, which includes Georgetown, Villanova, and Marquette. Gone from the Musketeers will be Travis Taylor, Jeff Robinson, and Brad Redford, but Xavier should be much improved from last season. Chris Mack could start to be on the hot seat if he cannot make the tournament in his 5th season. Xavier has a new Athletic Director who could be looking to eventually make a change if the Musketeers do not have success next season. Mack has an impressive 90-44 record, but needs to make the next step deeper than the Sweet 16 with a talented unit. Mack should follow Butler's road map to make that final push into the Elite Eight and Final Four.

Xavier returns an emerging stud in sophomore point guard Semaj Christon. Christon was the A-10 Rookie of the Year and will only get better after averaging 15.2 points and 4.6 assists per game. Christon will have the green light to create his own offense next year. He should be in the NBA in the next 2 seasons once he adds some weight. Dee Davis and Isaiah Philmore will be solid contributors to the team, but these two upperclassmen cannot carry a team like Christon has the ability to do. The wild card in the returning players group is Justin Martin. Martin, who averaged about 8 points and 4 and a half boards last year, will be a junior and has the pedigree to develop into a Derrick Brown or a BJ Raymond. He has a smooth jumper and was a top 100 recruit out of high school. Martin needs to become more consistent to reach that potential.

Offseason not complete for Bengals?

Since the start of the new league year, the Bengals have quietly filled most of the voids on the team and upped their talent level significantly through the signing of James Harrison and in April's draft. The team was also able to bring back its key veterans, Andre Smith, Michael Johnson, Adam Jones, and Wallace Gilberry. The team still has one major hole in its defense, however. The strong safety spot has been manned by Chris Crocker since he signed with the team midway through the season in 2008. He has collected 6 picks in his subsequent starting years following that time, but at 33 years old, Crocker may need to move on from the Bengals.

The Bengals will probably look to re-sign 2012 "WILL" linebacker Thomas Howard, who is coming off of a full season injury suffered last season, if the price is right. He will compete for the starting spot again, and if he impresses enough, the Bengals could move Vontaze Burfict to his natural spot in the middle and go with a linebacking corps of James Harrison, Burfict, and Howard. I see the Bengals bringing in one other outside free agent before training camp at the safety position. Shawn Williams, Taylor Mays, and George Iloka could each start next to Reggie Nelson, but these young players may need more time to adjust to Mike Zimmer's system. Williams and Iloka are the most likely to earn the job, which could make for an intriguing camp battle. Williams is an ideal run supporter and was the leader of Georgia's defense over the past few seasons. Iloka is 6'4, 225 pounds, and can cover well for his size. If the Bengals decide to go the veteran route, here are 3 safeties I could see as a fit for a year.


  • Kerry Rhodes-Probably the most likely veteran to get the call on a 1 year deal. Rhodes has already taken a free agent visit to Cincinnati, and is coming off a solid year with the Cardinals in which he intercepted four passes and had 64 tackles. Rhodes helped anchor Rex Ryan's great defenses in 2009 and 2010 in New York, and has 23 career interceptions in nine seasons. Chances he signs: 35%
  • Chris Crocker-This would be an ideal situation for Crocker, but maybe not for the Bengals. Crocker came in as an emergency fill-in player last year during the regular season. He played well with 3 interceptions, and the Bengals really missed him in their playoff loss to the Texans. He fits Zimmer's 4-3 defense extremely well, but at 33, can he survive the wear and tear of another full season? I could see the Bengals giving Crocker employment if the young safeties don't shape up late in training camp, but he won't have a chance to sign here if all goes according to plan. Chances he signs: 25%
  • Quintin Mikell-Mikell is the best of the free agent safeties left in the pool, and is one of the best free agents still available in the NFL. Ed Reed, Dashon Goldson, and Bernard Pollard are the only safeties on the market this year better than Mikell. He is more of an in-the-box safety, which fits the Bengals' style for the strong safety spot. Mikell is coming off of a 101 tackle season, and he also forced 4 fumbles. Mikell has experience playing in big games with the Eagles. He started 14 games in 2004 when the Eagles made the Super Bowl. He would be the most costly option out of this group, but would probably give the most return on the investment. Chances he signs: 10%

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Reds observations heading into home stand

The Reds head back to Great American Ball Park with a much needed off day after a grueling, but successful road trip in which the Reds visited three big markets in Miami, Philadelphia, and New York. The Reds beat those three teams 7 times and only lost 2. If Aroldis Chapman hadn't allowed back-to-back homers against the Phillies last Sunday, it would have been 8-1. Cincinnati is 29-18, just a game back from St. Louis for the lead in the NL Central, and the team has won 10 of 12 games. The Cubs head to Cincinnati next for a 3 game set. Expect the Reds to take at least 2 out of 3 of those games with Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, and Johnny Cueto each taking the hill. Here are some observations about the team's progress heading into the off day.

  • Joey Votto is back to 100% and is locked in with the MLB's second best average. The former MVP is seeing the ball as well as anyone right now. He has multi-hit games in 7 out of the last 9 games. In May alone, Votto is hitting .443 with a .536 OBP. Votto isn't looking to do too much when he steps up to the plate. He is squaring up almost every pitch inside the strike zone and lofting these pitches into the outfield gaps. He has upped his home run total to 7, with one coming today against rising star Matt Harvey. Votto is giving the Reds the player they missed over the last half of the last season.
  • Brandon Phillips is the MVP of this team over the first quarter of the year. What are you looking for from the cleanup spot? The name of that game is the RBI stat. The Reds have been great about getting on base at the top of their lineup. This is largely due to the production of new leadoff hitter Shin-Soo Choo and Votto, but Phillips has been accountable for the major portion of the offense. His 40 RBI's lead the NL and he bats at a solid clip of .284 with a .330 OBP. If Phillips continues to bring the runs home, this team will have a chance to finish with 100 wins.
  • Tony Cingrani won't be ready for this rotation until next season. The 23 year old looked awfully impressive when the Reds first called him up, but fell back and was exposed because of an overused fastball. Cingrani throws gas with that pitch capable of reaching 95 mph. However, he lacks the necessary control and a secondary pitch to beat out Mike Leake, whose last two starts warrant his spot in the rotation. Cingrani was 2-0 with a 3.27 ERA, but gave up 5 runs in 9 innings over his final 2 starts. Look for Cingrani to work on a slider and a change-up in Louisville. He will probably take over for Bronson Arroyo if he leaves for free agency or outcompete Mike Leake for the 5th spot next spring. Cingrani has the upside to end up as a similar pitcher to Clayton Kershaw.
  • Donald Lutz could be here for a long time. Some players don't need to spend time in the high ranks of the minors. The rookie left fielder was called up from Pensacola after hitting only .211 in Double A, yet has played much better at the highest level to warrant consideration for an opportunity to remain in Cincinnati for the rest of 2013. Lutz is the first German-developed player to reach the MLB and has major power potential. His .273 batting line includes 1 homer in his 6 hits, and more homers should come as he continues to reach a comfort level against MLB pitchers. Lutz has outplayed Derrick Robinson, whose best attribute is his running ability. Lutz is the better all around player with a contact approach at the plate and good fielding range, even though Robinson is batting .281. Lutz and Xavier Paul (.256 with 13 RBI's and a .383 OBP) have combined for a deadly left handed batting combination. When Chris Heisey heals from his injury in the next couple of weeks, expect him to return to Cincinnati because of his ability to hit from the right side. I could see the switch hitting Robinson being sent back to Triple A and Lutz remaining on the roster at least until after the All Star break when Ryan Ludwick is fully healthy.
  • Chapman has recovered from the blown save. Everybody is making a big deal about the blown save in Philadelphia, but I credit that performance to his reported binging on Cuban pastries. Rickie Ricardo, a Phillies announcer, gave Chapman a box of 100 "Krispy Kreme-like" pastries, and the closer apparently ate 18 before the game. If I ate 5 Krispy Kreme doughnuts, let alone 18, I don't think I could move for the rest of the day. 18 may be a little bit of an overestimation, but eating sweets before athletic activity is never a good idea. Chapman's blown save was an abnormality. Before allowing back-to-back homers in 1/3 of an inning, including the walk-off shot by Freddy Galvis, Chapman hadn't allowed more than a run in 5 prior performances, and had only blown one other save in 12 opportunities. Chapman hasn't allowed a run since in two innings against the Mets. He is back to being focused and disciplined, and as long as he stays away from the pastries, he should return to consistent dominance for an extended period of time. 
  • This Reds team is only going to get better. This time last season, the Reds were 23-19 and didn't really hit their stride until mid-summer. Johnny Cueto is going to return to his ace form at some point sooner rather than later after earning a win in 5 innings in his first start off of the DL. Heisey should give the Reds a proven bat off the bench when he is ready. In the late summer, the bottom of the order will be bolstered with Ryan Ludwick most likely getting plugged into the 6th spot in the order. The Reds have more winning streaks in them, and we certainly haven't seen the best of the Reds just yet.

Eifert's impact year 1 and status of Bengals' tight end position

I have watched Tyler Eifert in-person extensively, including in every Notre Dame home game last season. When you least expect it, Eifert will strike on a fade towards the sidelines or an intermediate route over the middle. Eifert, the 22 year old from Fort Wayne, Indiana, isn't a flashy receiver; you won't see him celebrate after scoring touchdowns or demand media attention. Maybe that's why he fell a little bit lower than he should have when he was drafted 21st in this past April's NFL Draft. However, Eifert was by far the most consistent and unquestionably the best receiver in Brian Kelly's spread offense last season. When Notre Dame needed a big play, the team would dial up Eifert's number, as shown by his 113 receptions and 1,488 yards over the last two seasons and a yards per catch average of 13.7 last year. Now, instead of being one of the leaders on an elite college team, Eifert joins a group of experienced NFL players with the Bengals. 

The tight end group is crowded and talented, starting with the two-time Pro Bowler, Jermaine Gresham. Gresham was much like Eifert when he was drafted in 2010. He was the best tight end in the nation coming out of Oklahoma and had the resume to back it up. He has been criticized and heavily scrutinized for his minor but apparent problem of dropped passes. Gresham doesn't drop many, but when he does drop a pass, it seems to come in the big moments. He had multiple dropped passes in the Bengals playoff loss at Houston in January. Gresham caught two balls in that game for 7 yards after being targeted 7 times. Eifert's presence should step up Gresham's level of play. Third-year Offensive Coordinator Jay Gruden will have toys to play with on the exterior of the line. Double tight end sets will be much more evident on this team next season. The 49ers (Vernon Davis and Delanie Walker) and Patriots (Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez) have done this in the past with a great deal of success. Notice these teams win multiple playoff games and usually end up in the AFC and NFC Championships. Gresham and Eifert will line up on the line with their hands in the ground a lot and help with the blocking schemes if necessary, but both, especially Eifert, can run routes from the slot or across from AJ Green on the outside near the red zone. Expect the Bengals to utilize these two tight end sets at least 50% of the time because if you spend two first round picks on receiver-oriented tight ends in the past 4 years, you have to use them. 

The Bengals also have 2011 4th rounder Orson Charles and 9 year veteran Alex Smith. Smith was primarily a blocker in Cleveland the last three seasons, and if he makes the team, he should fill a similar role in Cincinnati. Charles is as talented and physically strong as anyone. He is 6'3, 250 pounds, and caught 8 passes for 101 yards from Andy Dalton last season. The West Coast Offense fits Charles' skill set well. If he can adapt to an NFL style of play, Charles could have a very high upside as a 3rd tight end in the system. The tight end position will be one of the deepest and most competitive positions for the Bengals in 2013-14. It will also be arguably the team's most important position. If Gresham and Eifert play well, the offense as a whole will improve from 22nd to a spot in the top 10.