Monday, July 8, 2013

Reds weekend observations

The Reds fell back in their quest to gain control of the NL Central this weekend by dropping two of three to the lowly Seattle Mariners, a team in second to last place in the AL West and ten games under .500. As the All Star break approaches and the halfway mark in the season just completed, here are some observations on the progress of the team at this juncture.

-At just over the half way point, the Reds are still in good shape in terms of overall record. The team was nine games over .500 at the break last year and in second place, a game behind Pittsburgh. This year, the Reds are behind both St. Louis and Pittsburgh with some ground to make up. The Reds went on a long winning streak after the break last year in mid to late July, so as long as they keep pace and don't get over five games behind the first place Pirates, they should be fine going forward.

-The bullpen and starting pitching can't be blamed for the Reds' troubles right now. The offense has been flopping over the past four series. The Reds have struggled picking up AL pitching, as the team is now 6-9 on the year against AL opponents. Zack Cozart is two for his last nineteen, and Brandon Phillips is five for his last twenty-one. The top of the lineup needs to start hitting and getting on base so the Reds can generate more runs. Luckily for the Reds, they have only one series left against the AL against Oakland on August 6-7.

-A sweep of the last place Brewers could go a long way for this team. If the Reds can win three in Milwaukee, that puts them at fifteen games over .500 heading into a clash with the first place Braves. The Reds would then hope to take two of four in that series, and head into the break with one of the best records in the majors.

-The Reds will have two starters in the All Star Game for the NL roster in Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips. Phillips is getting his first start in his third appearance, and I could see him batting second on Bruce Bochy's lineup card. Votto is an experienced starter in the All Star Game, but he is hitless in his seven prior at bats in the game. Aroldis Chapman will make the team in back to back seasons and should be a nice weapon for the NL to use late in the game. Shin-Soo Choo and Jay Bruce could be considered snubs because they weren't elected to represent the Reds in the game, but with Choo's recent dip in batting average and Bruce's inconsistency at the plate, an appearance just wasn't in the cards. According to Bochy, Homer Bailey and Mat Latos were under heavy consideration for spots on the team as well.

-The second hitter in the lineup is costing the Reds a great deal of runs. Zack Cozart has found himself in a lot of favorable scoring opportunities throughout the season and hasn't been able to capitalize and extend those opportunities by getting on base or driving in runs. He has just nine RBI's and is hitting .216 in the last thirty days. The easiest solution is to move Votto up a spot in the order and shift Phillips to the third spot and Bruce to cleanup in the order. However, it is highly unlikely for Baker to move Votto, the best hitter on the roster, out of the third spot. Xavier Paul and Derrick Robinson are solid contact hitters with OBP's above .330, so another possibility is to platoon the two left fielders in the two hole.

Rich Hidy
Cincy Sports Spot

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