Thursday, May 30, 2013

Is left field in trouble for the Reds?

The Cincinnati Reds have the 2nd best record in baseball. There is no doubt that this team is reaching its potential for greatness this season. However, a key moment happened yesterday against the Cleveland Indians that may have cost the team the game in the Reds' 5-2 loss. In the top of the 6th inning, Xavier Paul found himself up to bat with the bases loaded down a run. Paul grounded into a double play, ending the Reds' threat that inning. That brings me to my main point. Can the Reds be successful long term by playing patchwork outfielders for the large majority of the summer?

Ryan Ludwick went down during opening day of the season. He has had surgery and isn't supposed to be back until at least mid-August. I don't expect Ludwick to be in the lineup until early September, and who knows if he will be the effective slugger he once was when he returns. Chris Heisey, who is currently out with an injury of his own, was very underwhelming when he was filling in for Ludwick. He hit just .173 in 75 at bats. Heisey also struck out 20 times and had an OBP of .195. He is currently trying to work his way back on the field and into the starting lineup.

Donald Lutz, Derrick Robinson, and Xavier Paul have each been admirable in replacing Ludwick, but none of the three has ever had a full season to play every day. Xavier Paul and Robinson were both picked up in free agency over the last two years. They were not sought after players when they were available. Donald Lutz is still just a prospect learning the game. He was called up from Double A and is virtually unknown in a long term role. These three can't be counted on to play well for almost a full season. They haven't done it before, and the upside for Robinson and Paul is limited. Paul is a very good situational player and fourth outfielder, but he doesn't generate the power needed to play left field every day. He has just 3 homers this season, but to his credit has a .393 OBP and an average of .277. Robinson's best tool is his fielding and running ability. He would be a good leadoff hitter for the Reds, but the team is set at that spot. 

The best case scenario for Cincinnati right now is for Paul to continue to play well and for Heisey to hit well when he comes back from the DL. Heisey has the best skill set to be a long term option at left field; he just hasn't proven it. If Paul and Heisey can platoon effectively in the 6th spot in the batting order until September, more power to them. The organization would be very happy. If not, this team could be in trouble and unable to hold steady in the race with St. Louis and Pittsburgh. The Reds would then have to go the trade route and further deplete their farm system, which would be bad for the future of the team. Cincinnati has to hope the weight on the shoulders of the current left fielders isn't too much to bare and that they can continue to reach base at a high rate.




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