Reds observations heading into home stand

The Reds head back to Great American Ball Park with a much needed off day after a grueling, but successful road trip in which the Reds visited three big markets in Miami, Philadelphia, and New York. The Reds beat those three teams 7 times and only lost 2. If Aroldis Chapman hadn't allowed back-to-back homers against the Phillies last Sunday, it would have been 8-1. Cincinnati is 29-18, just a game back from St. Louis for the lead in the NL Central, and the team has won 10 of 12 games. The Cubs head to Cincinnati next for a 3 game set. Expect the Reds to take at least 2 out of 3 of those games with Bronson Arroyo, Homer Bailey, and Johnny Cueto each taking the hill. Here are some observations about the team's progress heading into the off day.

• Joey Votto is back to 100% and is locked in with the MLB's second best average. The former MVP is seeing the ball as well as anyone right now. He has multi-hit games in 7 out of the last 9 games. In May alone, Votto is hitting .443 with a .536 OBP. Votto isn't looking to do too much when he steps up to the plate. He is squaring up almost every pitch inside the strike zone and lofting these pitches into the outfield gaps. He has upped his home run total to 7, with one coming today against rising star Matt Harvey. Votto is giving the Reds the player they missed over the last half of the last season.
• Brandon Phillips is the MVP of this team over the first quarter of the year. What are you looking for from the cleanup spot? The name of that game is the RBI stat. The Reds have been great about getting on base at the top of their lineup. This is largely due to the production of new leadoff hitter Shin-Soo Choo and Votto, but Phillips has been accountable for the major portion of the offense. His 40 RBI's lead the NL and he bats at a solid clip of .284 with a .330 OBP. If Phillips continues to bring the runs home, this team will have a chance to finish with 100 wins.
• Tony Cingrani won't be ready for this rotation until next season. The 23 year old looked awfully impressive when the Reds first called him up, but fell back and was exposed because of an overused fastball. Cingrani throws gas with that pitch capable of reaching 95 mph. However, he lacks the necessary control and a secondary pitch to beat out Mike Leake, whose last two starts warrant his spot in the rotation. Cingrani was 2-0 with a 3.27 ERA, but gave up 5 runs in 9 innings over his final 2 starts. Look for Cingrani to work on a slider and a change-up in Louisville. He will probably take over for Bronson Arroyo if he leaves for free agency or outcompete Mike Leake for the 5th spot next spring. Cingrani has the upside to end up as a similar pitcher to Clayton Kershaw.
• Donald Lutz could be here for a long time. Some players don't need to spend time in the high ranks of the minors. The rookie left fielder was called up from Pensacola after hitting only .211 in Double A, yet has played much better at the highest level to warrant consideration for an opportunity to remain in Cincinnati for the rest of 2013. Lutz is the first German-developed player to reach the MLB and has major power potential. His .273 batting line includes 1 homer in his 6 hits, and more homers should come as he continues to reach a comfort level against MLB pitchers. Lutz has outplayed Derrick Robinson, whose best attribute is his running ability. Lutz is the better all around player with a contact approach at the plate and good fielding range, even though Robinson is batting .281. Lutz and Xavier Paul (.256 with 13 RBI's and a .383 OBP) have combined for a deadly left handed batting combination. When Chris Heisey heals from his injury in the next couple of weeks, expect him to return to Cincinnati because of his ability to hit from the right side. I could see the switch hitting Robinson being sent back to Triple A and Lutz remaining on the roster at least until after the All Star break when Ryan Ludwick is fully healthy.
• Chapman has recovered from the blown save. Everybody is making a big deal about the blown save in Philadelphia, but I credit that performance to his reported binging on Cuban pastries. Rickie Ricardo, a Phillies announcer, gave Chapman a box of 100 "Krispy Kreme-like" pastries, and the closer apparently ate 18 before the game. If I ate 5 Krispy Kreme doughnuts, let alone 18, I don't think I could move for the rest of the day. 18 may be a little bit of an overestimation, but eating sweets before athletic activity is never a good idea. Chapman's blown save was an abnormality. Before allowing back-to-back homers in 1/3 of an inning, including the walk-off shot by Freddy Galvis, Chapman hadn't allowed more than a run in 5 prior performances, and had only blown one other save in 12 opportunities. Chapman hasn't allowed a run since in two innings against the Mets. He is back to being focused and disciplined, and as long as he stays away from the pastries, he should return to consistent dominance for an extended period of time. 
• This Reds team is only going to get better. This time last season, the Reds were 23-19 and didn't really hit their stride until mid-summer. Johnny Cueto is going to return to his ace form at some point sooner rather than later after earning a win in 5 innings in his first start off of the DL. Heisey should give the Reds a proven bat off the bench when he is ready. In the late summer, the bottom of the order will be bolstered with Ryan Ludwick most likely getting plugged into the 6th spot in the order. The Reds have more winning streaks in them, and we certainly haven't seen the best of the Reds just yet.