Friday, May 24, 2013

How to handle Choo's impending free agency

Reds fans should be enjoying this season. After all, it isn't every year that the Reds are 11 games over .500 in late May. That certainly didn't happen in 2010 and 2012 during Cincinnati's playoff runs. Much of the team's success is due to the contributions of leadoff hitter and center fielder Shin-Soo Choo. Choo was acquired in a 3 team deal that sent away Drew Stubbs and top notch prospect Didi Gregorius. Choo has been hitting well above the .300 mark for most of the early season, and currently stands at a perfect .300 average with a ridiculous OBP of .449. To put that number in perspective, Choo has reached base just a few times less than Joey Votto this season. Choo is the reason the Reds are so far in front of most MLB teams at this point. If Drew Stubbs was still manning center field for the Reds, the team would probably be just a few wins above .500 at this point. Choo has also hit 9 homers and driven in 19 runs.  He has 5 stolen bases and with the exception of a single game against the Cardinals in which he made a couple of errors, Choo has done a masterful job in his transition to center field.

Choo is making $7.375 million this season and is set to hit the open market at the conclusion of this year. He will probably seek double of what he is making right now. Scott Boras is Choo's agent. Boras is notorious for milking teams for as much money as he can get for his clients. In Choo's case, the new contract could get a little tricky for the 30 year old. I am sure Choo likes playing in Cincinnati. He plays a prominent role on a consistent winner with a solid clubhouse. Choo didn't experience winning in Seattle or Cleveland with the exception of 2007 when he appeared in 6 games for the ALCS bound Indians. There is also not much media scrutiny in Cincinnati, which the players really enjoy. A big market club like the Mets could offer Choo a max level deal worth almost $20 million per season, but I could see Choo taking a slight pay cut to stay in Cincinnati.

The Reds also have the dilemma of Triple A center fielder Billy Hamilton. Hamilton is the 11th best prospect in baseball and broke a record with 155 stolen bases for Single A Dayton and Double A Pensacola last year. Hamilton is 22 years old and should be ready to start next season at the major league level. He is hitting .246 at the leadoff spot for Louisville this season with 2 homers, 13 RBI's, and 15 stolen bases. The Reds are happy with Choo, but signing him long term would push back Hamilton's development.

If I was Walt Jocketty, I would sign Choo to a 4 year, $50 million dollar deal. This is a fair value for an aging, but rock solid veteran. Choo would be a Red until his age would warrant him not receiving a mega deal. Ryan Ludwick was signed to a two year deal this offseason. I would keep Hamilton in Triple A in 2014, and let Ludwick, Choo, and Jay Bruce be the every day outfield next season. Then, in 2015, when Hamilton is 24 years old, he could play center field and Choo could be moved to left. Ludwick would be out of the picture, and Bruce would remain in right field. Hamilton could bat in the leadoff spot, where his skills are prototypical for that position on the lineup card, and Choo could be moved to 2nd in the order.

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